Nick Brade has been looking at which teams might be in National Leagues North and South next season and where Hereford might be placed.
Plain facts:
All leagues are sponsored. This article (thankfully) ignores sponsors' names.
At
Non-League Step 1 (aka Level 5 overall) there is only one division,
called The National League, still 'fondly' remembered as 'the
Conference'.
At
Non-League Step 2 (aka Level 6 overall) there are two parallel
divisions, called National League North & National League South.
At
Non-League Step 3 (aka Level 7 overall) there are three such divisions,
Northern, Southern & Isthmian (which covers London, Surrey, Sussex,
Kent, Essex & most of East Anglia).
The
National Leagues North & South each promote two teams to Step 1,
and both relegate three teams to Step 3. Both divisions therefore
require five replacements before each new season.
The
four teams relegated from Step 1 would, more often than not, be two
each from the north & south. If, however, three or four teams from
one end of the country are relegated, then they are entered to the
appropriate division(s), before the placing of the promoted teams from
Step 3 is considered.
The
three Step 3 champions, and the play-off final winners are then
promoted to best fill the six remaining places. In extreme cases, the FA
may instruct The National League to move one team (or more) from one of
its Step 2 divisions to the other. [see 'Brackley' below]
Events of 2017-2018:
For
much of the season, the bottom end of Step 1 has been populated by
teams from the North. Though Torquay looked lost from day one, it seemed
locked-on that 'any-three-from' a huddle of Northern teams would join
them. That is, until Woking embarked on their fall from grace. Shipping
five FA.Cup goals at Posh in early December seems to have been the
catalyst. Since then they have won just three games, two of which were
against Chester and Guiseley, both already down ahead of the final round
of fixtures this Saturday. Amazingly, they could still survive, and at
the expense of Barrow, but don't hold your breath.
The Step 3 leagues have just been won by Altrincham, Hereford & Billericay.
Altrincham,
and the Northern League's play-off victors will naturally take National
North places. Similarly, Billericay and any of their chasing pack would
become National South teams. Had Woking's season not imploded, Hereford
would almost certainly be planning a National South campaign, but now,
like many Southern League teams previously, we have to wait to find out.
The
identity of the Southern League play-off winners will also be crucial
in determining Hereford's North/South status. Should circumstances
elsewhere dictate that Hereford and that team end up in opposite
divisions, one assumes that King's Lynn or Kettering would go North,
whereas Slough or Weymouth would ensure the Bulls went North instead.
Brackley:
A
“wild-card” exists, in the shape of Brackley Town, who will complete
their sixth consecutive season in National North, having won the
Southern Premier in 2011-2012 (managed by former Bull Jon Brady). They
are well-established as a “northern” team, with easy access to both M40
and M1, and their current third place equates to a highest-ever finish
in their 128-year history. Yet, as featured on BN many times,
predictions of the likely north/south split for next season's Step 2 all
place Brackley into National South. Six years in National North, and
enjoying success there to boot, would suggest they might be reluctant to
move.
The bottom line(s).
Step
1. Guiseley, Chester, Torquay are already relegated. Woking must beat
Dover, and hope Barrow cannot beat Chester, to send Barrow down.
Step
2. If Brackley Town's third place finish translates into play-off
success for them, all discussion of a National North team moving south
is removed.
Step
3. A King's Lynn or Kettering play-off win means Hereford look south.
Conversely, Slough or Weymouth success means Hereford may look north.
Surely
the most concrete part of this is Brackley Town. They're not favourites
to go up (a Trophy final at Wembley won't help them), but they've
obviously got a playing squad suited to National North. They would
definitely resist a change. If Woking can work a miracle and stay up,
Hereford are in National South – put your shirt on it. Three teams down
to National North, plus Brackley's status quo
leaves no room for Hereford. Without a Barrow demotion, though, there's
still one place left. For King's Lynn. Or Kettering Town. Or Hereford.
How ironic.