This is not a drill, anyone who made a Good Friday trip to Edgar Street will be thinking that this could actually happen. Just the small problem of having games against Kidderminster and Scunthorpe in the way. The key to our play-off door could though be held by Brackley. A Brackley that play at Leamington on Monday then at home to Farsley. So how does that help us?
As excellent as Hereford played in the second half against Leamington, they are a team that have form of LLLDL, and eventually crumbled. Meanwhile any manager interviewed before a game against Farsley will struggle to convince when saying they will be a tough test, so...
Reasons To Be Cheerful Part 1 - Kidderminster are currently level on points with Brackley; but with far superior goal difference. Kidderminster will know that if they win their two remaining fixtures then the title/automatic promotion is theirs. On the flip side, if they fail to match Brackley's result on Monday, a Brackley that must fancy their chances against Leamington, then they will have barring a crazy Farsley upset all but handed the title to Brackley. We need to capitalise on that, Boxing Day happened, but this end of season version of Hereford FC gets gutsier by the game. In summary, a draw for Kidderminster could be far more damaging than a draw for us?
Reasons To Be Cheerful Part 2 - If Brackley beat Leamington, then based upon the assumption that they will also see off Farsley, Scunthorpe's automatic promotion race will effectively be over by the time they get to Edgar Street, especially if they slip up at home to Peterborough Sports on Monday. Again we need to capitalise on what would surely be a crushing end to the regular season for them?
So what is the potential end of season table looking like? We are Hereford fans so bred to have a pint half empty, and the below is very much in that spirit; it means you no harm though. It is not at all scientific, just based upon what should happen (it never does), I am also being purposely hard on Hereford.
Numbers in bold are the estimated final points - the 6 game form is in brackets - then the current games/points - then the predicted results - then the remaining fixtures (games in bold are home fixtures).
Kidderminster 92 (16/6) 44/86 - WW - Hereford, Southport
Brackley 92 (15/6) 44/86 - WW - Leamington, Farsley
Scunthorpe 88 (9/6) 44/84 - WD - Peterborough, Hereford
Chester 85 (11/6) 44/81 - WD - Marine, Kings Lynn
Kings Lynn 80 (13/6) 44/76 - WD - Needham, Chester
Buxton 80 (13/6) 44/74 - WW - Alfreton, Warrington
Chorley 79 (9/6) 44/73 - WW - Radcliffe, Rushall
Curzon Ashton 79 (8/6) 44/73 - WW - Farsley, Leamington
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Hereford 77 (13/6) 44/76 - LD - Kidderminster, Scunthorpe
Spennymoor 76 (10/6) 44/70 - WW - South Shields, Oxford
The above assumes that (a) Hereford struggle, and (b) Curzon and Chorley don't, neither of who are enjoying life at the moment. Below are the various permutations.
82 Points (two wins) - This will guarantee us 5th place and a home tie in the first play off match barring a crazy swing in goal difference with Kings Lynn (we are currently 13 goals to the good). There is also a slight chance that we could overhaul Chester and finish 4th as they currently sit on 81 points.
80 Points (a win and draw) - This will guarantee us a play off place, possibly as high as 5th depending upon Kings Lynn and Buxton's results.
79 Points (a win and a defeat) - This is likely to secure a play off place as it would at worst would put us on equal points with Curzon and Chorley, they would both have to overcome the current goal difference deficit (we are currently 4 and 7 better than them).
77 Points (a draw and a defeat) - If either Curzon or Chorley fail to win both their games then 77 points should get us in the play offs, although we would again need goal difference to come to our aid. Spennymoor wouldn't be able to catch us.
76 Points (2 defeats) - If either Curzon or Chorley lose one of their remaining games, and Spennymoor fail to win both of their remaining games, then again subject to goal difference (we would need to be edged out of both games rather than get hammered), we would already have enough. If either Curzon or Chorley get less than three points and Spennymoor are less than perfect then we are definitely in regardless of goal difference.
The good news is we are in control of our own destiny.