Hereford's win yesterday at Oxford was "a beautiful thing"; shamelessly stealing the words of the person who undertook the draw for the 5th round of the Rumbelows Cup in 1992. A Mr. D.Trump from America, whatever became of him?
The promotion picture has split into two excellent races. The push for the title between Scunthorpe, Kidderminster, and Brackley is fascinating. If that wasn't enough, the battle for 5th/6th/7th spots currently has fans of Curzon, Chorley, Spennymoor, Buxton, Kings Lynn and some outfit called Hereford in a spin. Meanwhile, minding their own business sandwiched in-between in 4th spot sit Chester.
Yesterday, Brackley got a last gasp winner at Warrington, Scunthorpe did us a favour by beating the seemingly unstoppable Spennymoor, whilst Kidderminster were looking after us by seeing off Curzon.
Below is a not very scientific end of season prediction, one that is possibly being tough on us - under promise, over deliver is the saying I believe. I have assumed that each game goes to form, but that of course takes no account for traditional havoc causing end of season pressure. Essentially this last furlong of the campaign is a gamblers graveyard.
I have Kidderminster to win the title on goal difference, but that assumes that they beat us. Switching off that negativity for a moment, it would be lovely if we could grab 5th spot as that would bag a home tie in the opening play off game. I think at this stage that is greedy, rather than completely delusional. From a logistical point of view alone, a 5th place finish would mean the mid-week round of the play off calendar would be at Edgar Street, which would be helpful given none of the likely opposition are going to be too far south of Manchester.
We have a tough last two games, but Chorley playing Buxton on Good Friday helps one way or another, also Kings Lynn have an equally tricky run in to us. It is also worth noting that Spennymoor who I have awarded super human status to currently sit 4 points beneath us. Having another swig of positivity, if we win on Friday we should go 5th. If Kings Lynn also lost to Scunthorpe then that would leave us 3 ahead of them with two to go, with far better goal difference for Hereford to boot.
Fast forwarding to the last game of the season, if both us and Scunthorpe need something from the last game (very likely), Scunthorpe will know that Brackley will most likely beat Farsley. We, like fans of a number of teams feel like we would be more at home in a higher division, but Scunthorpe really are stuck in the wrong league. How will their nerves be?
Numbers in bold are the estimated final points - the 6 game form is in brackets - then the current games/points - then the predicted results - then the remaining fixtures (games in bold are home fixtures).
Kidderminster 92 (16/6) 42/83 - WWW - Rushall, Hereford, Southport
Brackley 92 (12/6) 43/83 - WWW - Oxford, Leamington, Farsley
Scunthorpe 89 (12/6) 42/84 - DWD - Kings Lynn, Peterborough, Hereford
Chester 85 (11/6) 43/78 - WWD - Southport, Marine, Kings Lynn
Curzon Ashton 81 (7/6) 43/72 - WWW - Alfreton, Farsley, Leamington
Chorley 80 (9/6) 43/73 - DWW - Buxton, Radcliffe, Rushall
Spennymoor 79 (12/6) 43/69 - WWW - Scarborough, South Shields, Oxford
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Buxton 78 (13/6) 43/71 - DWW - Chorley, Alfreton, Warrington
Kings Lynn 78 (11/6) 42/70 - DWD - Scunthorpe, Needham, Chester
Hereford 77 (10/6) 43/73 - WLD - Leamington, Kidderminster, Scunthorpe
The above is possibly harsh on Hereford as it assumes the likes of Curzon and Chorley will suddenly find form that has been eluding them recently.
If it is correct though we will need 80 points to be sure. 2 wins and a draw, or a repeat of the form of our last three games, so all good.
Finally, whilst the play off system was hatched to prolong as many teams seasons as long as possible, even allowing for that there are 10 teams in our division alone that have nothing really to play for, we meanwhile are looking forward to three potential crackers in front of bumper crowds, plus whatever the play offs may bring. Bring it on.