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Next Game: Pre-Season

Friday, December 07, 2012

Alger Previews Bulls Tie


BlueSq guru Alan Alger has written an extended preview of tonight's Bulls match in his usual weekly preview (here).

The occasional retro-Newcastle keeper thinks the Bulls will win the game:

With both sides one game away from a valuable tie in the third round of the FA Cup, managers Dave Bayliss and Martin Foyle will want to focus their players' minds on gaining an important three points in Friday's live Blue Square Bet Premier fixture on Premier Sports. The hosts haven't won a league game for nearly two months and have dropped to 23rd in the table. The tight nature of the league is illustrated by Hereford United occupying 13th place, but only six points better off than the Bluebirds. The Bulls do have a game in hand, though, and a win on Friday night could briefly put them as high as 9th in the standings. It's unusual to see Barrow with just one home win to their name from 10 league games this season. An overall win rate of 38% at Holker Street in the previous four seasons peaked at a whopping 52% last term. Bayliss knows that their survival in Non-League's top flight will depend on his squad quickly addressing that paltry 10% figure for home wins this season. Hereford have been beaten four times on the road, winning two of their ten matches. They've lost just two of their last eight league games, but any promotion charge has been slowed down by far too many drawn games (4 in their last 8). The Bulls still warrant narrow favouritism and backing going into this tie though at a price of 6/4, Barrow are the outsiders at 13/8 and a draw is priced at 12/5

Hereford's away games have been averaging nearly 3.5 goals whilst Barrow's home games have been averaging exactly 3. In such a high scoring division it's no surprise to see 'Over 2.5' goals quoted at a restrictive 4/6, with the price on 'Both Teams to Score' also odds-on at 4/9. A 2-1 away victory looks the best value on the 'Correct Score' market at 9/1. Something I've noticed this season (more than most) is that lots of goals are being scored towards the end of a half in matches. At Blue Square Bet we offer a special market on the 'Time of the First Goal' and speculating on 31-45 mins inclusive (a bet that would also include first half injury time) at 4/1 might be a very good bet on the recent stats.