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Hereford FC host Curzon Ashton on Saturday, following bitter disappointment in falling to last-minute defeat last Saturday at full-time footballing giants Fylde.
1000 people were in attendance at that game. This is very much back-of-fag-packet maths, but I think that means they’re £30,000 short of what Hereford generate in revenue every fortnight, which in turn means that their owner David Haythornthwaite would have to be pumping, at a conversative estimate, £500,000 in a year to afford a wage bill akin to Hereford’s.
Given that the players he collects are significantly more expensive than Hereford’s, his pet project will be costing him something somewhat north of that. That dwarfs, very substantially, what even Kidderminster are losing every year, in an attempt to reach the hallowed ground of two matches against Wealdstone each season. Whatever he’s sinking or pumping into his project, it’s very difficult to compete against across a whole season if you’re a club quite rightly trying to run itself viably as a business.
Tiny outfits on financial steroids with no natural catchment of support are undoubtedly an irritant, but Curzon Ashton operate largely without steroids and have done brilliantly to achieve what they’ve achieved over the last few seasons, not just in staying in the National League North but battling it out with steroid merchants at the top of the table.
The Nash have been busy of late, which could favour Hereford here, although they’ve also been successful of late, which is, inconveniently, less favourable. Last Saturday they beat struggling Peterborough 1-0 at home, and on Tuesday they won 3-0 against Kings Lynn, again at home, one late goal and another very late goal lending the scoreline a more comprehensive flavour. Those back-to-back wins have seen them climb to within a point of the play-offs.
Their away record is solid, with only one loss in seven, and they’ve scored freely on their travels too.
If Paul Caddis can get his side to come out of the blocks sharply and put in the sort of 90-minute performance that comfortably saw off Alfreton at the end of August, and avoid the disjointedness of too many other home games, a win is possible. That’s about as far as current form can push the optimism meter, and honestly everyone’s beating Alfreton.
The fact that Hereford have only won one other game so far this season at home, 2-1 against a Worksop side that isn’t going to trouble the top half of the division, illustrates the sort of start they’ve made.
The Bulls currently sit in 18th position in the National League North table, one place below the classic 17th underachievement/total boredom place. Is it a false position occupied by a squad poised to fly up the division and storm the play-offs? Or is it actually representative of a side that becomes nervous in front of a home crowd rather than inspired by it? We’re now comfortably past the ten-game ‘table-doesn’t-lie’ stage.
There’s nothing in terms of cold, hard evidence yet to suggest that Paul Caddis can field a side this season that can produce a consistent, winning performance at home, and get results away at the sides with loads of moolah.
The performance in defeat last Saturday at Fylde was a step up from that in the 1-1 home draw with Telford, and offers more evidence to suggest that the side can more relaxedly fulfil its potential away from a crowd rather than in front of one.
A lot could be revealed here in terms of shaping hopes and expectations over the coming months, and the possibility of turning Edgar Street into a place other NLN sides fear coming to. That said, it’s dawning even on the likes of me, someone still cursed with a Hereford United mindset, that Curzon Ashton vs this iteration of a club playing at Edgar Street is far removed from being David vs Goliath, and is very much David vs David.
Nevertheless, 2500 people, an attendance that actually is David vs Goliath compared to what the Nash get, will be willing 11 people to play football without fear and get back to winning ways here, and those 2500 need to be seen by the players as a supportive help rather than a stressy ‘mustn’t make a mistake’ hindrance, if indeed that’s the problem with the home form. Much depends on Charlie Cooper becoming the new Tom Pugh and Gus Mafuta getting fit.
Young Harley Hamilton will have to sit this one out as he’s suspended, but in future games he is perhaps the missing link between the midfield and a lone striker, generally Remaye Campbell, who has been hopelessly isolated too many times this season, making it too easy for bang-average sides such as Bedford to come to Edgar Street and go from edgy to super-confident in the opening 15 minutes of games.
Oxford and Southport follow this. Four points will be a minimum requirement from those games, and even then it could be four points towards staving off relegation, given current form.
It’ll click, consistently, soon. Bound to, right?
COYW