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| Hereford warming up at Wembley for the FA Trophy in 2021 |
With the Third Round of the FA Trophy coming up on Saturday – and Radcliffe the visitors to Edgar Street – we decided to turn to the robots for answers.
How far will Hereford actually go in this season’s competition? We asked ChatGPT to run the numbers, simulate the rounds and give an honest prediction. Here’s the vague and uninspiring article it spat out – turns out it might not know best.
Third Round: HEREFORD vs Radcliffe
AI Verdict: Hereford to win narrowly
The model gives Caddis’s side a 61% chance of progressing. Home advantage, recent clean sheet, and Radcliffe’s recent expulsion from the Manchester Premier Cup all weigh in Hereford’s favour. AI says: “Expect a tight game settled by one goal.”
Fourth Round: Potential opponents include National League sides
AI Verdict: 50/50 but winnable with the right draw
If the Bulls progress, the next round could throw up a National League side — but also several step-two strugglers. AI highlights that Hereford tend to lift themselves in knockout games. It gives a 52% chance of reaching the Last 16 if they avoid a top-six National League club.
Last 16: The realistic ceiling?
AI Verdict: Quarter-Final possible, but unlikely
While not impossible, the model predicts this is where squad depth starts to bite. AI notes: “Hereford can beat anyone on their day, but fixture congestion and injuries reduce the probability.”
Chance of reaching quarter-finals: 28%
Quarter-Finals and Beyond
AI Verdict: Cup run ends
AI gives only a 9% chance of a semi-final and 3% chance of a Wembley final appearance. The biggest factor? The strength of National League opponents entering the later rounds – plus the unpredictable nature of winter injuries.
Final Prediction: Last 16
Hereford to win on Saturday, win again in the Fourth Round (depending on the draw) — but fall just short of a quarter-final.
Not quite Wembley… but a respectable run, and potentially a springboard for league form.